“You can’t be confident about human decision-making. You can be confident on the potential of technology. Humans are quite capable of making both wrong and bad decisions.” — Keith Teare

Is a jobless AI future really something to celebrate? That Was the Week publisher Keith Teare certainly thinks so. His editorial “Civilization: What Is Worth Doing” this week imagines a future in which nobody has to work unless they choose to, basic necessities are no longer scarce, leisure time is abundant, and governance fades to near-invisibility.

I’m not so sure. As I told Keith, “That sounds incredibly boring. I don’t want to live in that kind of society.”

The conversation this week has been civilizational. A few days ago, the podcaster Patrick Wyman came on the show to argue that history is mostly unintentional and unexpected. But Keith says civilization is broadly linear and tends, if not toward justice, toward progress. Wyman says civilizations are plural and never inevitable.

“Why History Keeps Happening” is how Wyman put it. The end and the beginning of history are, thus, delusional. We are, then, always in the middle of history. That’s the wisdom missing from all the ridiculous hysteria about AI. It’s just one chapter in our history. The promise that AI will create mass abundance is as somnolent as the fear it will wipe out our civilization. Pass the Soma.

Five Takeaways

• Civilization: Singular or Plural? Wyman says civilizations are plural and nonlinear. Keith says civilization — singular — is broadly linear over two hundred years. Both right at different scales. Andrew: we’re in a nonlinear moment masquerading as progress. Keith: we’re at a fork in the road.

• Paul Ehrlich and the Limits of Forecasting. Ehrlich predicted resource collapse in the 1970s and was totally wrong. Lesson: most people are probably wrong about AI right now — both doomers and optimists. The future is not the thing you think you’re heading toward.

• The Pyramid of Change. A small number of people at the top have an outsized influence on what happens. Most people receive change rather than make it. The question: who is at the top of the pyramid? And do they share your values?

• AI Panic in the Media. Ten studies show media coverage of AI is overwhelmingly negative. Keith: media reflects opinion, doesn’t form it. When you don’t know, you believe the worst. If AI delivers, opinion changes. Media will follow.

• Keith’s Utopia: Incredibly Boring. Everyone eats, everyone is warm, nobody has to work unless they choose to, governance shrinks to irrelevance. Andrew’s verdict: “that sounds incredibly boring.” The Germans will still be putting their towels out at dawn.

About the Guest

Keith Teare is a British-American entrepreneur, investor, and publisher of the That Was the Week newsletter. He is a co-founder of TechCrunch.

References

That Was the Week: “Civilization: What Is Worth Doing” by Keith Teare: thatwa.st
Norman Lewis, “The Future Is Not Scarce,” Nervous
Nirit Weiss-Blatt, “What 10 Studies Revealed About AI Panic in the Media”
Ezra Klein, “Why the AI Job Apocalypse Probably Won’t Happen,” The New York Times

About Keen On America

Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen.

Website: https://keenon.tv/ Substack: https://keenon.substack.com/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@KeenOnShow

Chapters:

00:00:31 This week in history — and why history keeps happening
00:02:10 Is civilization linear? Keith’s editorial: What Is Worth Doing
00:03:05 The fork in the road: we’re all at a civilizational moment
00:04:06 The pyramid of change: receivers vs. makers
00:05:01 Ezra Klein and the articulate minority
00:06:16 Norman Lewis: The Future Is Not Scarce
00:07:54 Paul Ehrlich and the limits of forecasting
00:08:50 Where Keith is least confident: human decision-making
00:09:35 Nirit Weiss-Blatt: What 10 Studies Revealed About AI Panic
00:10:10 Media reflects opinion rather than forming it
00:11:41 We’re always in the middle of history: the Fukuyama correction
00:13:10 The driver analogy: someone has a route; history doesn’t
00:16:00 Ezra Klein on why the AI job apocalypse probably won’t happen
00:18:00 Nobody knows: not Klein, not Altman, not Dario, not Andrew
00:22:00 AI in education: the No Child Left Behind comparison
00:26:25 What will remain scarce: creativity, beaches, imagination
00:27:19 Germans and the towel strategy
00:28:23 Do we have any idea where we’re going?
00:29:54 What kind of society does Keith Teare want?
00:30:52 Andrew’s verdict: that sounds incredibly boring