“I think patrimonialism is exactly the right phrase to describe the way in which the current administration is governing.” — Peter Hall
Neoliberalism is dead. So what comes next? Peter Hall, a Harvard political economist for the last four decades, says the capitalist locomotive left the neoliberal station years ago. His new book, Governing Growth, names the next stop: the “knowledge economy,” the digital, globalized capitalism of the 21st century.
The knowledge economy made San Francisco, New York and Boston very rich. It left almost everyone else behind. Out of that came a new political cleavage — college degree versus no college degree — and, on both sides of the Atlantic, the populist wake-up call.
But as Jonathan Rauch and Jeff Kopstein have argued on this show, populism has since curdled into something worse: patrimonial capitalism, government on behalf of pitchfork-wielding oligarchs like Orbán and Trump. Ironically, it only deepens the inequalities that produced it. And it’s going to get worse. In the AI age, I suspect, we may end up looking back with nostalgia at good old late twentieth century neoliberalism.
Five Takeaways
• Three Growth Regimes. Modernization from 1945, liberalization from 1980, and knowledge-based growth since about 2000 — with corporations as much agents of change as governments.
• Thirty Cities. About half of US growth in 25 years happened in some thirty metros. Kendall Square went from auto body shops to pharmaceutical engineering; many people were left behind.
• The Populist Cleavage. Class built the welfare state; education now divides voters. Bidenomics put investment in red states, Germany put chip plants in the East — but the New Deal won’t return.
• A Political Stomach. Hall won’t reveal his politics, but on Trump he’s direct: patrimonialism is exactly the right word, and convergence with China’s statism is “all too right.”
• Growth, Climate and a Fourth Regime. No-growth is a political mistake: end of the world versus end of the week. AI may start a fourth regime — and nobody yet knows how to regulate it.
About Keen On America
Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen.
Website: https://keenon.tv/ Substack: https://keenon.substack.com/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@KeenOnShow
Buy Governing Growth: press.princeton.edu
Chapters:
00:00:31 Introduction: what comes after neoliberalism?
00:02:12 Three growth regimes
00:03:43 When did the shift happen?
00:04:39 Corporations as agents of change
00:07:07 The digital turn: intangibles and global value chains
00:09:15 What does it mean for democracy?
00:10:17 Skill-biased change and thirty metro areas
00:11:43 Kendall Square and Central Square
00:12:45 A new political cleavage
00:13:36 Populism: neoliberalism or the knowledge economy?
00:15:39 Is AI a fourth growth regime?
00:17:40 Andrew Shonfield and the welfare state
00:18:53 Class cleavage and the making of the welfare state
00:21:25 Can we go back to the New Deal?
00:22:32 Bidenomics, euro bonds and East German chip plants
00:24:49 What are your politics?
00:26:50 Is populism a good or a bad thing?
00:27:43 Plutocrats with pitchforks
00:30:04 Patrimonial capitalism — and China
00:31:53 Should we give up on growth?
00:33:46 The end of the world or the end of the week
00:34:58 What history teaches about regulating AI