“Democracies don’t die silently, sleepwalking. Democracies die by going through periods of pretty serious political violence.” — Robert Pape
Forget all the long-term civil war scenarios of everyone from Kurt Andersen to Stephen Marche. Today’s guest Robert Pape has spent the last thirty years at the University of Chicago studying political violence, and his warning is about the next six weeks rather than the next ten years. In his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies, Pape argues that tens of millions of Americans, on both left and right, now support political violence.
When it comes to an American age of violent populism, his comparison is 1968 rather than 1861. What produced that era of assassinations, violent protest, and state violence, Pape argues, was rapid social change outpacing the political system. Back then, it was fueled by the gap between the Great Migration of African-Americans and the absence of political representation, and a military draft falling hardest on the unrepresented. And it only ended in the early Seventies, with the end of the draft in 1973 and the arrival of Black mayors and the Congressional Black Caucus.
Today, rapid social change is once again outpacing the political and economic system. On the one hand, America is a country moving from white-majority to white-minority — with its non-Hispanic white population dropping from 76% in 1990 to 57% today. On the other, America is experiencing a dramatic economic transformation that has moved something like a tenth of American wealth from the bottom 90% to the top 1%.
The details of Pape’s observations are unsettling. Only one in ten of the 1,575 people prosecuted for the January 6 insurrection belonged to a militia, with 45% being doctors, lawyers, CEOs or government employees. While five to seven per cent of the George Floyd protests turned violent. But social media, he insists, is the gasoline, not the fire, of this crisis. So at least we can’t blame the internet for everything.
Pape does, however, offer a couple of glimmers of hope. Firstly, he reminds us that 70% of Americans still abhor political violence. Secondly, he notes that all gaps eventually close, and that we should expect American government to eventually address economic inequality. But that won’t happen before the November 2026 midterms which, he warns, might be a return of the political violence of 1968.
Five Takeaways
• Democracies Don’t Sleepwalk. Not a civil war in ten years — serious political violence now, from the left, the right and the state. Tens of millions of Americans on both sides support it.
• The 1960s Rhyme. Assassinations, hundreds of riots, the Weather Underground’s bombings — and an ending: the draft abolished in 1973, and Black political representation at last.
• Two Social Changes. From white-majority to white-minority democracy, tipping point 2012; and a tenth of American wealth moved from the bottom 90% to the top 1%. Social media is gasoline, not the fire.
• Not the Proud Boys. Only one in ten January 6 defendants was in a militia. Forty-five per cent were doctors, lawyers, CEOs and government employees — average age 42.
• The 70%. The Americans who abhor political violence have never been mobilized. And the danger zone isn’t election day — it’s the weeks of counting that follow.
About Keen On America
Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen.
Website: https://keenon.tv/ Substack: https://keenon.substack.com/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@KeenOnShow
Buy Our Own Worst Enemies: thenewpress.org
Chapters:
00:00:31 Introduction: Kurt Andersen, Alex Garland and the facts of violence
00:02:10 Violence comes first — and it’s here now
00:03:49 Is America more violent than it has been?
00:06:00 Back to the 1960s
00:07:10 State violence, assassins and the layer cake
00:10:58 Millions supporting violence — then and now
00:11:21 The Weather Underground and the Gallup surveys
00:14:15 Why violence erupted after the civil rights victories
00:16:50 Why the sixties ended: the draft and representation
00:21:09 What changed ten years ago
00:21:48 From white-majority to white-minority democracy
00:25:09 Why not under Obama? The 2012 tipping point
00:26:28 The wealth shift and the negative-sum society
00:29:04 Is social media the accelerant?
00:31:52 January 6: only one in ten were militia
00:33:29 Doctors, lawyers, CEOs — and dentists
00:33:47 Where is the violence on the left?
00:34:39 George Floyd, October 7 and the campus protests
00:38:18 The good news: how this era could end
00:39:25 The Obama immigration playbook
00:42:09 Inequality — and the untapped 70%
00:44:39 A flat tax, and the squeaky wheel
00:46:27 Eric Zwick and the three million millionaires
00:47:28 Why the midterms could be the most dangerous election
00:47:53 $5 gas, Iran and the worst nightmare
00:48:55 The real danger zone: counting the votes
00:51:57 Why he has spent his life studying violence