“Orbán rigged the electoral system to highly benefit the winner. He thought he would never face the realistic possibility of losing. When someone actually threatened his plan, he just couldn’t imagine it. And that person got more than 55% — a two-thirds-plus majority. Orbán shot himself in the foot.” — Marc Loustau

On April 12, Viktor Orbán — the populist who invented the illiberal playbook — got booted out of office by the Hungarian electorate. His defeat, says Marc Loustau, Harvard PhD and fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study at Central European University, represents a playbook for defeating illiberalism. Orbán had rigged the electoral system so dramatically — giving the winner 1.5 votes for every vote the loser got — that when Péter Magyar got more than 55 percent of the vote, Orbán’s own system destroyed him. The gods must have their fun — Hungarian poetic justice.

Orbán’s cronies, Loustau reports, are fleeing to Dubai with their hot rod car collections and ill-gotten gains from sixteen years in power. But the mid- and upper-tier bureaucrats, Loustau warns, are still in office. Not having any other skills, they’re going to be difficult to dislodge. Making Hungary a functional democracy again won’t happen overnight.

The goal of Péter Magyar’s government, Loustau says, is to “make Hungary boring again.” That should be the lesson for the anti-Trumpists in his native America, Loustau says. Build the broadest possible coalition, never kick anyone out of it, and refuse to be drawn onto the deadly culture-war terrain. When Orbán banned the Budapest Pride parade to force Péter Magyar to take a stand on LGBTQ issues, Magyar flew to a Greek island. It was, Loustau says, the smartest move of the campaign. Make America boring again. The anti-Hollywood playbook for defeating illiberalism. Are you watching Gavin & Kamala?

Five Takeaways

• Poetic Justice. Orbán rigged the system to benefit the winner. He never imagined losing. Magyar got 55 percent. Orbán’s own system gave Magyar a supermajority. He shot himself in the foot.

• The Cronies Are Heading for Dubai. Sixteen years of packing every institution with loyalists left Hungary with an inept government. The most visible Orbán figures are fleeing with their hot rod collections. The mid-level “authoritarian cadre circles” are harder to remove. It will take years.

• Make Hungary Boring Again. No more brinkmanship between Russia, Brussels, and Washington. Hungary belongs in the EU. That is good for ordinary Hungarians. It does not end the far-right threat globally. So long as Putin is alive, vigilance is required.

• Magyar Goes to Greece. When Orbán banned the Budapest Pride parade to trap Magyar on LGBTQ issues, Magyar went on holiday to Greece. He wasn’t even in the country. Never engage on your opponent’s chosen terrain.

• Enough Is Enough. Magyar broke with Orbán at a moment of genuine moral crisis — pardons for those who covered up child abuse. That moral authority gave him a platform. The lesson: when government harms the innocent and powerless, someone who stands up and says enough can build a majority. Magyar won on decency, not policy.

About the Guest

Marc Loustau is a Harvard PhD, Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study at CEU Budapest, and author of the At the Edges Substack on Central and Eastern European politics.

References

At the Edges Substack by Marc Loustau: marcloust.substack.com

About Keen On America

Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen.

Website: https://keenon.tv/ Substack: https://keenon.substack.com/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@KeenOnShow

Chapters:

00:00:31 How significant was the Hungarian election in historical terms?
00:01:30 Orbán’s authoritarianism: model for the world, now defeated
00:02:56 Was the left paranoid? How did Orbán actually lose?
00:03:50 Poetic justice: Orbán rigged the system and it destroyed him
00:05:46 Corruption uncovered: the regime unraveling
00:06:38 Sixteen years of cronyism: what remains?
00:07:51 Authoritarian cadre circles: how long to dislodge them?
00:08:24 The cronies heading for Dubai with their hot rod collections
00:10:38 Romania, Ceauşescu, and celebrating the lack of violence
00:11:30 Russian false flag operations at the Serbian border
00:13:00 The new PM: who is Péter Magyar?
00:15:00 Central European University: Soros’s institution and what changes now
00:18:00 JD Vance in Budapest: what did he learn?
00:22:00 Orbán’s media control and what Magyar inherits
00:26:00 Make Hungary boring again: the new government’s agenda
00:30:00 The far-right threat: does Orbán’s fall end it?
00:33:30 Make Hungary boring again
00:35:20 Magyar’s lessons for defeating Trumpism in 2028
00:36:13 Building a broad coalition and avoiding culture-war landmines
00:38:36 Magyar goes to Greece: the LGBTQ landmine avoided
00:39:02 Can disaffected Trumpians defeat Trumpism?
00:41:02 Enough is enough: the moral authority that wins