“Soccer matches are poorly designed experiments — you don’t necessarily find out which team was better. But any soccer fan will tell you that. Oftentimes, the better team does not win.” — Nick Greene, via a NASA scientist

On June 11, the World Cup comes to North America. Fifty-six years ago, I watched the searing injustice of Johann Cruyff’s Holland getting robbed in the 1974 final by Germany. Today I talk with someone who explains how this kind of injustice is built into the game’s DNA. Nick Greene — long-suffering Newcastle United fan and author of How to Watch Basketball Like a Genius — has a new book, How to Watch Soccer Like a Genius, which tells us what architects, stuntwomen, paleoanthropologists and computer scientists tell us about the beautiful game.

What they tell us is that the game isn’t fair. One NASA scientist tells Greene that soccer is a “poorly designed experiment” because the low-scoring nature of the game means results don’t reliably identify the better team. Thus the dark fate of the free-scoring, brilliantly inventive Hungarians in 1954 and the Dutch in 1974. So if you want to watch the World Cup like a genius, don’t expect the best team to win the tournament. Which may explain why Greene suspects that England — where the pain of World Cup injustice is a national fetish — will win in 2026. On penalties probably. Arsenal style. After 120 minutes of goalless football.

Five Takeaways

• Soccer Is a Poorly Designed Experiment. A NASA scientist published a peer-reviewed paper proving the low-scoring nature of soccer means results don’t identify the better team. Greene’s reaction: any fan could have told him that. The 1974 Dutch are exhibit A.

• Justice Has Nothing to Do With It. The 1974 Dutch lost and are legends. The 2004 Greeks won and are a footnote. The shared understanding built into soccer watching is that winning is only one metric. It is an imperfect and profoundly human enterprise.

• Appreciate the Defense. Low scoring looks like the absence of offense. It’s really the presence of defense. Maldini. Beckenbauer. Catenaccio. The genius watcher watches the defenders.

• VAR: Too Much, Going in the Right Direction. Its worst sin: ruining a goal celebration. Greene’s prediction: it will evolve toward the coach’s challenge model — a limited number of challenges per half. It’s relatively young. Futted and fidgeted with still to come.

• Don’t Bet On It. Results don’t reliably reflect the better team. Talking about your bets is the least interesting conversation you can have. Nick’s pick: England. Andrew’s reaction: Kane is a Spurs man. Reluctant endorsement. But please. Don’t.

About the Guest

Nick Greene is a contributing writer at Slate and the author of How to Watch Soccer Like a Genius (Abrams Press, May 12, 2026) and How to Watch Basketball Like a Genius. He is a Newcastle United fan based in Berkeley, California.

References

How to Watch Soccer Like a Genius by Nick Greene (Abrams Press, May 12, 2026)
David Winner, Brilliant Orange: The Neurotic Genius of Dutch Soccer

About Keen On America

Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen.

Website: https://keenon.tv/ Substack: https://keenon.substack.com/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@KeenOnShow

Chapters:

00:00:31 Introduction: World Cup on June 11
00:02:26 How Nick got into soccer
00:03:30 The NASA paper: soccer as poorly designed experiment
00:05:49 Justice and the 1974 World Cup
00:07:01 The 1974 Dutch vs 2004 Greece
00:09:47 How to appreciate defense
00:30:00 Penalty shootouts: luck or skill?
00:35:00 The expanded 48-team format
00:53:40 VAR: too much, going right
00:57:13 Nick’s prediction: England
00:58:28 Don’t bet on it.