“You cannot expect a society to open its doors if there is no way to close them. You cannot expect a society to open its gates if there is no gate to open.” — Justin Gest

It’s a counterintuitive and deliberately provocative argument. Rather than bolstering open societies, migration actually benefits authoritarianism. And it’s the argument that Justin Gest makes in his new book, Democratic Drain: Global Migration and the Struggle for Democracy. Drawing on data from 149 countries, Gest shows that global migration has been inadvertently strengthening authoritarianism by stealing liberal democrats from the places that need them most.

When liberals emigrate from authoritarian countries, Gest argues, they take their democratic values with them. As a consequence, fewer people dare to vote against the autocrat, fewer people protest, fewer people cling to liberal norms. The argument turns the normal discourse about migration on its head. Immigration is usually framed as a question about the countries experiencing migration. But Gest reframes it from the perspective of the countries losing people. So, for example, when Hungary’s young liberal professionals move to Berlin or London, Orbán’s job got easier. Or when Venezuela’s middle class emigrated to Miami, Maduro’s grip tightened.

And, of course, when people leave America, it benefits Trump. That’s the real bite in his polemic. Be patriotic, Justin Gest is telling American liberals. Stay home. Don’t go down the democratic drain.

Five Takeaways

• The Democratic Drain. When liberals emigrate from authoritarian countries, they take their democratic values with them. What’s left: fewer people to vote against the autocrat, protest, organise. Orbán’s Hungary is easier to govern after its young liberals move to Berlin. Across 149 countries, the correlation is striking.

• White Working Class as Protest Voters. Many are not authoritarians. They want the system shaken. They see populists as the only candidates willing to speak truth. Immigration is the sine qua non of far-right populism. Voters are strategic, not irrational.

• The Left Must Embrace Nationalism. The left has ceded nationalism to the right as if there is no nationalist case for immigration or climate policy. This is inexcusable. Immigrants make countries younger, fill labour shortages, innovate, create jobs. Frame it in the national interest. The debate changes.

• The Internationalist Paradox. If democratic drain is real, an internationalist who cares about global democracy might logically oppose emigration from authoritarian countries. Gest: possible but foolish. Grow the democratic movement; don’t dam the river.

• Three Fault Lines. Democrats vs authoritarians. Winners vs losers of globalisation. Civic imagination vs ethno-religious imagination. Whichever fault line you look at, you end up at the same place.

About the Guest

Justin Gest is Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University and the author of Democratic Drain (Cambridge University Press, May 2026), Majority Minority, and The New Minority.

References

Democratic Drain by Justin Gest (Cambridge University Press, May 2026): cambridge.org/core/books/democratic-drain/D8497D6A38FCA61ADE68CC62235449B9
Justin Gest, “How the Left Can Embrace Nationalism,” Washington Post, March 2022

About Keen On America

Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen.

Website: https://keenon.tv/ Substack: https://keenon.substack.com/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@KeenOnShow

Chapters:

00:00:31 Budapest, CEU, and the three fault lines
00:02:32 Is democracy the central committee of the ruling class?
00:05:54 White working class as protest voters
00:07:13 Immigration as sine qua non of far-right populism
00:20:00 What is democratic drain?
00:26:18 You cannot open doors if there is no way to close them
00:28:36 How the left can embrace nationalism
00:33:52 Civic vs ethno-religious identity as the third fault line