“If the regime doesn’t lose, it wins.” — Soli Özel

It was just past midnight in Istanbul when I reached Soli Özel. The Pentagon had just announced it was deploying the 82nd Airborne to the Gulf. Özel — one of the most trusted analysts of Middle Eastern politics — is blunt. This might, he warns, be America’s Suez moment.
In 1956, spent imperial powers were humiliated in Egypt. Trump is a noisier, more corpulent Anthony Eden. The difference: the US and Soviet Union were ready to replace them. Today, no great power can take America’s place. But its prestige is diminished, its ammunition depleted, and when it called on NATO allies to help open the Strait of Hormuz, nobody volunteered.
Russia and China are winning on every front without sending any of their crack regiments to the front. It may also be midnight for a declining United States in the Middle East.

Five Takeaways
• The Negotiations Were Working. Iran accepted conditions firmer than the JCPOA. Nobody told Trump that Venezuela and Iran have nothing in common.
• If the Regime Doesn’t Lose, It Wins. Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery. Hit radars, data centres. Nobody thought they could do this.
• America’s Suez Moment. NATO allies refused to help open the Strait. Russia wins. China waits. Prestige diminished.
• The Moral Debate Nobody’s Having. Assassinating foreign leaders crossed a red line. The rest of the world has noticed.
• Nothing Will Be the Same. Gulf relations with the US will be reconsidered. Israel’s position in the region will shift. The status quo is over.

About the Guest
Soli Özel is a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul and a columnist for Habertürk. He writes for Project Syndicate.
References
Project Syndicate: https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/soli-ozel

About Keen On America
Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen.
Website: https://keenon.tv/ Substack: https://keenon.substack.com/ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@KeenOnShow

Chapters:
00:00:00 Introduction: 3,000 soldiers, the Strait of Hormuz, and confusion
00:01:43 Why war? The negotiations were going America’s way
00:03:36 Venezuela is not Iran: the decapitation fallacy
00:04:47 If the Iranian regime doesn’t lose, it wins
00:06:34 Trump’s ultimatum, the 48-hour bluff, and the Iranian denial
00:07:19 Turkey, Oman, and Egypt: the diplomats trying to prevent a ground war
00:09:13 Is Turkish diplomacy a smokescreen or sincere?
00:10:03 Iran cuts gas to Turkey and fires missiles intercepted by NATO
00:11:28 The Kurdish question and the fear of Iranian collapse
00:13:07 Israel in Lebanon: a million people on the roads
00:15:35 1956 revisited: is this America’s Suez moment?
00:19:08 The Palestinian issue remains
00:21:04 Russia wins on every front. China proposes six points.
00:23:53 The moral debate America isn’t having: assassinating foreign leaders
00:28:37 Will anything ever be the same?